Sunday, September 29, 2013

FEINBERG FORECAST: Updated Projections (With 22 Weeks Until the 86th Oscars)

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Every week until the Oscars on March 2, 2014, 's lead awards analyst The Hollywood Reporter Scott Feinberg will post an updated "Feinberg Forecast," reflecting his latest take on the standings of the contenders in each of the major categories. For more about Scott and how he arrives at his projections, scroll to the bottom of this post. Here, meanwhile, is a list of developments since the last forecast that helped to shape this one...

  • Several high-profile contenders -- Sony Pictures Classics' Foxcatcher and The Weinstein Co.'s making the path to a nomination a little easier for other contenders. Meanwhile, it has been confirmed that Paramount's The Wolf of Wall Street will not make its previously-announced Nov. 15 release date and could also end up getting pushed to 2014 The Immigrant and Grace of Monaco -- have been pulled out of the 2013 awards season and into 2014, for a variety of reasons, .
  • The 51st New York Film Festival got underway on Friday night. The opening night screening was the world premiere of Sony's Captain Phillips, with the director, stars and real people who inspired the film all in attendance.
  • The Hollywood Film Awards announced that it will present, at its 17th edition on Oct. 21, its and Hollywood Supporting Actor Award to Prisoners' Jake Gyllenhaal, Hollywood Supporting Actress Award to August: Osage County's Julia Roberts Hollywood Breakout Performance Award to Dallas Buyers Club's Jared Leto.
  • Racing against the Oct. 1 deadline to name their official submission for consideration for the best foreign language film Oscar, a number of new countries revealed their picks. Among others, Hong Kong went with Wong Kar-Wai's kung-fu flick The Grandmaster, Israel tapped Yuval Adler's Ophir Award-winning thriller Bethlehem , which was a fan favorite at the recent Telluride and Toronto film fests.
  • This weekend at the box-office, Warner Bros.' returning Prisoners -- which topped the charts last weekend with a $21.4 million take in the same corridor from which the studio's Argo launched with a $19.5 million take the previous year -- held off Universal's newcomer Rush to claim the #2 spot ($11.3 million to $10.3 million) behind Sony's best animated feature Oscar hopeful Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2, which led the field with $35 million in sales. The film with the highest per-screen average though, and growing buzz, is Fox Searchlight's Enough Said, which held strong in its second week in limited release, averaging $9,317 on 227 screens.

And, without further ado, here is the latest forecast...

About the Feinberg Forecast

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records at doing so. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011), among other long-shots.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings), publicly-available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Source: Hollywoodreporter

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